The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the...

Deutschland steht bei der Modernisierung seines Kapitalstocks vor enormen Herausforderungen. Vor dem Hintergrund einer Vernachlässigung der öffentlichen Investitionen in den letzten beiden Jahrzehnten gilt es nun, die Infrastruktur auf den neuesten Stand zu bringen und den hier aufgelaufenen...

Im Jahr 2019 hatten Bardt et al. (2019) erstmalig eine umfassende Schätzung der in der damaligen Haushaltsplanung nicht abgedeckten öffentlichen Investitionsbedarfe in Deutschland vorgelegt und hatten diese Bedarfe dabei auf rund 460 Mrd. Euro über zehn Jahre beziffert. Die vorliegende Arbeit...

Public investment has been badly neglected in Germany over the past two decades, with the result that the public capital stock no longer meets the standards of a modern economy and is inadequate for the challenges that will be posed by demographic change and Germany's international...

Both the German federal as well as the general government recorded a surplus for the fourth time in a row in 2017. The fast consolidation after the Great Recession coincided with the transition period for the full introduction of the federal debt brake, which is sometimes interpreted as...

In this article an overview of the German macroeconomic performance in the last decade is stressed; extraordinary recovery of the German productivity and successes of the foreign trade face depressed domestic demand and a still worrying situation in the labour market. This article attempts to...

In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the...

In den letzten zehn Jahren ist die makroökonomische Bilanz Deutschlands sehr widersprüchlich ausgefallen: Einer Zurückeroberung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und offensichtlichen Erfolgen im Außenhandel steht eine weiterhin schwache inländische Nachfrage und eine immer noch...