In diesem Beitrag stellen wir zwei Modelle vor, in denen die Einführung eines lender of the last resort den Geschäftsbankensektor entscheidend beeinflusst. Im ersten Fall ist die Einführung stabilisierend, im zweiten Modell hingegen destabilisierend. Die beiden Modelle eignen sich...

We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from)...

In vormals aufstrebenden Branchen wie z. B. der Solarindustrie kommt es plötzlich zu einem massiven Austritt selbst großer Marktteilnehmer. Warum? Dieser Artikel zeigt, wie mit mikroökonomischen Überlegungen argumentiert werden kann, um die Anzahl an Unternehmen in einem Markt zu bestimmen....

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather...

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find...

We estimate Okun coefficients for five different age cohorts for several Eurozone countries. We find a stable pattern for all countries: The relationship between business-cycle fluctuations and the unemployment rate is the strongest for the youngest cohort and gets smaller for the elderly cohorts.

The paper investigates Scandinavian countries and its respective male and female youth unemployment rates. Okun's law is used to estimate age-cohort and gender specific Okun coefficients to make inference on the business-cycle dependence of young people across Scandinavian countries.

In recent years youth unemployment rates across Europe soared, causing the European Commission to take actions through initiatives to counter this development. This article examines youth unemployment development in selected CEE countries and compares them to the EU 15. We use Okun's law and...