It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital inflows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital inflows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

It is often argued that capital should flow from aging industrialized economies to countries with fast-growing populations. However, institutional failures and the risk of expropriation substantially reduce developing economies' attractiveness for foreign investors. We analyze the influence of a...

It is often argued that countries with a high population share of children and young workers should attract large capital infl ows from aging industrialized economies. However, many of these countries deter foreign investors by a high risk of creeping or outright expropriation. In this paper we...

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...

Die deutsche Konjunktur verlor im Sommerhalbjahr merklich an Kraft und die Aussichten stellten sich bisher auch wenig günstig dar. Allerdings dürften von dem inzwischen deutlichen Rückgang des Rohölpreises spürbare Impulse für die Konjunktur im kommenden Jahr ausgehen. So reduziert ein um...

Die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft hat in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2014 an Schwung gewonnen. Die Belebung ging erneut von den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften aus. Insbesondere in den USA wurde die Produktion im zweiten Halbjahr deutlich stärker ausgeweitet als im ersten. Im Euro-Raum setzte...

Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Deutschland wurde zum Jahresende 2014 unerwartet kräftig ausgeweitet. Das reale BIP war im vierten Quartal 2014 um 0,7% höher als im Vorquartal. Auch für die ersten Monate dieses Jahres ist eine deutliche Expansion zu erwarten; darauf deuten die...

Using factor models, it has recently been shown that a pre-selection of indicators improves GDP forecasts in the very short-term. The aim of this paper is to adopt this research to the methodology of bridge models in combination with pooling approaches. Focusing on Euro Area GDP between 2005 and...