This paper analyzes the trade-off between official liquidity provision and debtor moral hazard ininternational financial crises. In the model, crises are caused by the interaction of bad fundamentals,self-fulfilling runs and policies by three classes of optimizing agents: international...

Im vergangenen Jahrzehnt gingen beträchtliche Kapitalströme aus den entwickeltenVolkswirtschaften mit einem starken Kreditwachstum in den Ländern des westlichen Balkans,der Türkei und den GUS einher. Dennoch konnten fast alle Länder der Region – ungeachtetihrer unterschiedlichen...

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends onhow tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporatethemechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorrisand Shin (American...

We disentangle different driving factors of sovereign bond market integrationby studying yield co-movements of EMU countries, the UK, the US and 16German L¨ander in the last 15 years. At a low frequency of weeks, bondmarket integration has increased gradually in the course of the last 15 years...

In this paper we analyse the comparative pricing of vanilla and GDP linkedsovereign debt. The key feature of GDP linked bonds is that their cashflowscoupons,principal or both-are linked to the evolution of the country’s nationalincome. While it has long been argued that indexing debt to...

We empirically analyse the appropriateness of indexing emerging market sovereign debt to USreal interest rates. We find that policy-induced exogenous increases in US rates raise default riskin emerging market economies, as hypothesised in the theoretical literature. However, we also findevidence...

This paper introduces an expected value estimator with expert knowledge to the robust estimation of sovereign rating transitions which are characterised by few observations. Ourestimates of default premia within Mexican, Colombian and Brazilian Eurobond yield spreads provide a better fit than...

Die Unternehmen der Mineralölindustrie sind konfrontiert mit gravierenden Defiziten der institutionellen Rahmenordnungen für globales Wirtschaften. Sie reagieren auf diese Defizi-te, indem sie sich auf soziale und ökologische Kriterien sowie auf Governance-Standards freiwillig selbst...

This paper highlights relative price adjustments taking place in the global economy as important sources of the lower levels of inflation rates observed in the recent decades. Using a markup model, it shows substantial effects from declines in wage costs and import prices relative to consumer...

The remarkable stability of low domestic inflation in many countries requires explanation. In this paper, a number of competing hypotheses are evaluated on a stand-alone basis, and all are found to be inadequate. This includes the view that this outcome has been solely the result of more...