Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...

Stylized facts on output and interest rates in the U.S. have so far proved hard to match with business cycle models. But these findings do not acknowledge that the economy might well be driven by different shocks, and by each in different ways. I estimate covariances of output, nominal and real...

We consider a general equilibrium model with frictions in credit markets used by households. Inour economy, houses provide housing services to consumers and serve as collateral to lower borrowingcost.We show that this amplifies and propagates the effect of monetary policy shocks on...

This paper extends a New Keynesian model to include roles for currency and depositsas competing sources of liquidity services demanded by households. It showsthat, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the Barnett critique applies: While a Divisiaaggregate of monetary services tracks the true...

Much recent research has focused on the development and analysis of extensions of the New Keynesianframework that model labor market frictions and unemployment explicitly. The present paper describessome of the essential ingredients and properties of those models, and their implications for...

While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a hump shapedoutput response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies,there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly, external habits) onoptimal policy. In this paper we...

In practice, central banks have been confronted with a trade-off between stabilising inflation and output when dealing with rising oil prices. This contrasts with the result in the standard New Keynesian model that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do, even when an oil...

This paper analyzes price competition in the German motor insurance market since 1994 and looks for evidence to back up a claim frequently found in the trade literature—that there have been two recent price wars in this industry, the first in 1996–1999, the second in 2005–2006. In a first...

We use data from over 20,000 firms in 60 countries to identify constraints on the growth offirms. We interpret managers´ answers to survey questions on the extent to which variousaspects of their external environment inhibit the performance of their firm as measuring theshadow cost of...

Throughout the developing world, there is a desperate quest for a way out ofthe financial predicament confronting the rural poor. In most countries of thedeveloping regions, especially South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the ruralpopulation forms the larger proportion of the entire population and...