represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …

-of-sample forecasting exercise. We find that three-regime models that allow for shifts in the inflation risk premium or real interest rate (or … both) are the most promising forecasting models of inflation when using the term structure. …

, we compare their performance in a relevantcase for policy making, i.e., nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP growth …This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR(MF-VAR) approaches to model speci…cation in … onexponential lag polynomials for the coe¢ cients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrictthe dynamics and therefore can su¤er from the …

This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the pres-ence of model uncertainty with … with di¤erent speci…ca-tions. We evaluate the relative performance of pooling and model selection for now-and forecasting …

Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries …, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms offorecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting di-rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based onthe aggregation of country …

-linear effects is of extremeimportance to improve forecasting performance. U.S. and U.K. asset return data are “special” in thesense …

indicators for forecasting the Swiss business cycle. In particular, the difference between risk-free long-term and short …-term rates is an ecient indicator for both the amplitude and the timing, especially over long forecasting horizons. Part of this … forecasting the timing of the cycle. It is also shown that financial variables, coupled with indicators from the real economy …