A framework is proposed for organizing phenomena related to the (mis)predictionof utility, in particular neglecting adaptation. A categorization is introduced that accounts forasymmetries in misprediction. In decision-making, goods and activities satisfying extrinsicdesires are more salient than...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...

Agents compete to acquire a limited economic opportunity of uncertain pro…tability.Each agent decides how much he acquires public signals before making investmentunder fear of preemption. I show that equilibria have various levels of e¢ ciency undermild competition. The e¤ect of competition...

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these trader types, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according to evolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their...

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by...

The trend towards Internet self-regulation is driven both by gov-ernments that feel reluctant to invest in direct regulation (because offreedom of speech concerns or high cots of monitoring and enforce-ment) and by the industry that is under the threat of rising publicconcerns over content...

The quadratic scoring rule (QSR) is often used to guarantee an incentive compatibleelicitation of subjective probabilities over events. Experimentalists haveregularly not been able to ensure that subjects fully comprehend the consequencesof their actions on payoffs given the rules of the games....

We provide a critique of the methods that have been used to derive measures ofincome risk and draw attention to the importance of demographic factors as asource of income risk. We also propose new measures of the contribution tototal income risk of demographic and labour market factors....

In experimental economics there exists a lively debate about the independenceof observations. Although opinions on the issue dier widely, allconcerns regard the independence of subjects' behavior within one sessionor experiment. This paper attempts to shed some light on the independenceof...

Confronted with a speculative attack on its currency peg, an authority weighs the short-term benefit of giving in and fine tuning the economy against the long-term benefit of credibility-enhancing resistance. In turn, speculators with heterogeneous beliefs face strategic uncertainty that peaks...