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classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data … sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437906
This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440722
Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomicexpectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475485
Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475539
A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435350
-WOODS - 3. THEORIE DER ZIELZONEN - 4. WECHSELKURSSPEKULATION IM KRUGMAN-MODELL - 5. WECHSELKURSSPEKULATION IN ZIELZONEN ALS … analysed:1. INTRODUCTION - 2. THE DISCUSSION ABOUT TARGET ZONES IN THE POST BRETTON WOODS ERA - 3. TARGET ZONE THEORY - 4 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009471730
Untersuchungsziel dieser finanzwissenschaftlichen Arbeit ist die Wirkung einer Tobin-Steuer als spezielle Transaktionssteuer auf das Devisen-Handelsvolumen und die Wechselkursvolatilität. Ausgangspunkt bildet das mikroökonomische Investitionsverhalten der Marktteilnehmer, das wir mit Hilfe von...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009471738
The thesis consists of two essays: "The CAPM -- A General Equilibrium Foundation" and "The Foreign Exchange Rate in Financial Markets".The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is one of the most successful models for portfolio selection. The utility functions are assumed to depend positively on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009452580
explaining exchange rate movements. The asset market theory of exchange rate determination implies that exchange rates are mainly … driven by the development of macroeconomic fundamentals. Furthermore the asset market theory assumes that foreign exchange … speculation, economic theory states that speculation can have either a stabilizing effect or a destabilizing effect on exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009433679
In this paper, we develop a decision-theoretic frameworkfor evaluating data mining systems, which employ classification …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009431139