results show that the forecasting performance of both groups differs substantially. Afterwards we analyze the nature of … explanations for the differences in the forecasting performances. In the second experiment, we analyze the expectation formation in …/USD Wechselkurs mit experimentellen Prognosen von Studenten für eine simulierte Zeitreihe verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich …

This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for monthly volatility in fifteen stock … forecasting models. Asymmetric loss functions are employed to penalize under-/over-prediction. When under-predictions are …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …

behaviors in any given situation. This work presents several scalable frameworks for modeling and forecasting agent behavior …, particularly in the realm of international security dynamics. A probabilistic logic formalism for modeling and forecasting behavior … of this problem, forecasting methods are also introduced that operate directly on time series data, rather than an …