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We evaluate the performance of various methods for estimating factor returns in an approximate factor model. Differences across estimators are most pronounced when there is cross-sectional heteroskedasticity, or when cross-sectional sample sizes, n, are below 4,000 assets. Estimators...
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The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic variables without a priori assumptions concerning causality and generate forecasts without additional assumptions regarding regressors. With application of tendency survey data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021
We introduce an approximate dynamic factor model for modeling and forecasting large panels of realized volatilities. Since the model is estimated by means of principal components and low dimensional maximum likelihood, it does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We apply the model to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092430
In this article, the authors measure the impact of estimation error on latent factor model forecasts of portfolio risk … find that an estimation period of 250 days may be adequate to accurately forecast risk and factor exposures for an equally … an estimation period of 1000 days. This underscores the importance of testing risk models on optimized portfolios …
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