Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 18,359
Cover Image
Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)
de Bondt, Gabe; Hahn, Elke - 2010
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605292
Cover Image
Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Buch, Claudia M.; Doepke, Joerg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002
structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the … in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ?good luck?. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260526
Cover Image
Real wages and the business cycles in Germany
Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - 2010
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274586
Cover Image
Real wages and the business cycle in Germany
Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - 2010
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302616
Cover Image
Deutsche Wirtschaft in Frührjahr 2024: Erholung mit Hindernissen
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; … - 2024
Die deutsche Wirtschaft müht sich aus der Stagnation. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung wieder zulegen. Eine große konjunkturelle Dynamik ist aber nicht absehbar. Vor allem die recht kräftigen Zuwächse des real verfügbaren Einkommens werden den privaten Konsum anschieben....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014506985
Cover Image
Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks
Burgstaller, Johann - 2006
Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294615
Cover Image
Moments of cross‐sectional stock market returns and the German business cycle
Döpke, Jörg; Müller, Karsten; Tegtmeier, Lars - In: Economic Notes 52 (2023) 2
Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2021, we analyse whether cross‐sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in‐sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014504276
Cover Image
Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Nobili, Andrea - 2008
The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605025
Cover Image
Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2007/2008
In: DIW Wochenbericht 74 (2007) 1/2, pp. 1-21
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601698
Cover Image
Weltwirtschaftliche Expansion nur leicht gedämpft: Rezession nicht wahrscheinlich
In: DIW Wochenbericht 74 (2007) 42, pp. 605-619
Der Aufschwung in Deutschland präsentiert sich nach wie vor in einer sehr robusten Verfassung. Neben einem günstigen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601759