This paper evaluates the consequences of the integration of international asset markets when goods markets are characterized by price rigidities. Using an open economy general equilibrium model with volatility in the money markets, we show that such an integration is not universally beneficial....

This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample...

In this paper we propose Granger (non-)causality tests based on a VAR model allowing for time-varying coefficients. The functional form of the time-varying coefficients is a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model using time as the transition variable. The model allows for...

The role of unanticipated changes in money growth for aggregate fluctuations is reexamined using the methods of quantitative equilibrium business cycle theory. A stochastic growth model with money is constructed that has the feature, following Lucas (1972, 1975), that production and trade take...

GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified...

Nicht zuletzt aufgrund der kürzlich in der Schweiz abgelehnten Vollgeldinitiative wird das Thema Geldschöpfung privater Geschäftsbanken auch außerhalb der Fachwelt in einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert. Welche Chancen böte der Systemwechsel zu einem Vollgeldsystem? Und mit welchen...

Nach der jüngsten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise kamen verstärkt Forderungen auf, die Geldpolitik solle zur frühzeitigen Erkennung von Finanzmarktungleichgewichten verstärkt auf monetäre Variablen ihr Augenmerk richten. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt, dass diese Überlegung wohl begründet...

We introduce a model of the economy as a social network. Two agents are linked to the extent that they transact with each other. This generates well-defined topological notions of location, neighborhood and closeness. We investigate the implications of our model for monetary economics. When a...

In this study, the endogenous money hypothesis is examined for the Argentinean economy employing exogeneity tests by using monthly data for the time period 1991-2001 within the frame of money and price relationship in a Currency Board-like system. Empirical results support the hypothesis which...

This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the endogeneity of money supply by empirically investigating the GCC countries. We propose and implement a direct test of money supply endogeneity that depends on econometric specification of exogeneity. To be able to make comparisons with...