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This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506673
Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resourcemarkets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fisherymanagement with logistic fish pOpUlation growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomicequilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325073
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326142
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261355
stochastic optimization problem However under realistic descriptions of utility and uncertainty the optimal consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293482
In recent years, bioeconomy strategies have been implemented and adapted internationally. In the bioeconomy, materials are to a certain extent circular by nature. However, biomaterials may also be used in a rather linear way. Lately, a transition towards a circular economy, a more restorative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014323774
This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295862
example of the neoclassical growth model, this note as- sesses the accuracy of the obtained approximation. The implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263093
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696622
Neighbourhood effects research is at a crossroads since current theoretical and empirical approaches do not seem to be moving the debate forward. In this paper, we present a set of ten challenges as a basis for a new research agenda which will give new direction to the neighbourhood effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314689