Forecast with judgment and models

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

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Year of publication:	2008
Authors:	Monti, Francesca
Publisher:	Brussels : National Bank of Belgium
Subject:	Makroökonometrie \| Prognoseverfahren \| Allgemeines Gleichgewicht \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Theorie \| Schätzung \| USA \| forecasting \| judgment \| structural models \| Kalman Filter \| real time

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Series:	NBB Working Paper ; 153
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	880366419 [GVK] hdl:10419/144365 [Handle] RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200812-2 [RePEc]
Classification:	C32 - Time-Series Models ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506673