This article examines the German debt brake from a technical point of view. By designing the debt brake on the basis of the EU method, it should be possible to achieve an adequate division between the cyclical and structural components of the budget balance, while at the same time pursuing a...

Macroeconomic studies of tax policy in dynamic general equilibrium usually assume that reforms hit the economy unexpectedly and last forever. Here, we explore how previous results change when we allow policy changes to be pre-announced and of finite duration and when these facts are anticipated...

We analyse the problem of parameter inconsistency in panel data econometrics due to the correlation of exogenous variables with the error term. A common solution in this setting is to use Instrumental-Variable (IV) estimation in the spirit of Hausman-Taylor (1981). However, some potential...

We extend the results of De Luca et al. (2021) to inference for linear regression models based on weighted-average least squares (WALS), a frequentist model averaging approach with a Bayesian flavor. We concentrate on inference about a single focus parameter, interpreted as the causal effect of...

In this paper two simple tests to distinguish between unit root processes and stationary nonlinear processes are proposed. New limit distribution results are provided, together with two F type test statistics for the joint unit root and linearity hypothesis against a specific nonlinear...

This paper considers testing the unit root hypothesis against a smooth transition autoregressive model as the alternative. The model specification makes it possible to discriminate between nonstationary random walk and stationary nonlinear processes. Some new limit results are presented,...

In this paper, we introduce the simulated maximum likelihood method for identifying behavioral heuristics of heterogeneous agents in the baseline three-equation New Keynesian model. The method is extended to multivariate macroeconomic optimization problems, and the estimation pro-cedure is...

A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under alternative data generating processes (DGPs). The models included in the MC study are the (Fractionally Integrated) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...

The Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM) is the only statistically reliable nationwide database that allows calculating the annual homicide rates for each Federative Unit (FU) since 1980. Concerning to data on violent deaths, two elements, however, may...

Propensity score based-estimators are commonly used to estimate causal effects in evaluation research. To reduce bias in observational studies researchers might be tempted to include many, perhaps correlated, covariates when estimating the propensity score model. Taking into account that the...