Die Entwicklung des privaten Verbrauchs ist eine entscheidende Größe bei der Erstellung makroökonomischer Prognosen im Rahmen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen. Als erklärende Variable für die Konsumentwicklung spielt damit auch die Ersparnisbildung der Haushalte eine zentrale...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

The identification of real estate cycles has always been an important issue in the study of real estate. This paper selected as indicators the Composite Leading Index and Reference Cycle Index regarding the real estate cycles in Taiwan, as they incorporate real estate activities, such as...

Nach den Wahlen im September sind größere Änderungen beim Einkommensteuertarif zu erwarten. Ferner wird häufig gefordert, Familien mit Kindern stärker zu fördern. Aus diesem Anlass hat das DIW Berlin einige Änderungsvorschläge hinsichtlich ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

The study seeks to examine stock market wealth effects on private non-durable consumption for Zimbabwean households using quarterly data from 1994(1) to 2008(2). The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the long run relationship between stock market wealth and...

This paper quantifies the welfare cost of consumption externalities in an endogenous growth model with habit formation. Agent’s utility depends on both current consumption and a reference consumption level determined by economy-wide average past consumption. Although utility may be lower in...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the cause and effect relationship between economic growth and savings in advanced economies and in emerging and developing countries2. In this work we used the method based on studies in macroeconomics and international finance as well as econometric methods...

The economic theories taking into consideration human behavior and based on the achievements of psychology, sociology, anthropology have been evolving at a blistering pace over the last decade. Owing to that, the behavioral finance has become one of the fastest developing academic areas focused...

Während manche Länder in der Europäischen Währungsunion aufgrund von Schulden- und Strukturkrisen tief in der Rezession stecken, steht die deutsche Wirtschaft derzeit glänzend da. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist auf den niedrigsten Stand seit der Wiedervereinigung gefallen, die Wirtschaftsleistung...