We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series fYtg at time t given covariates Xt, where Xt can ei- ther exogenous variables or lagged variables of Yt . The conditional quantile is estimated by inverting a kernel estimate of the conditional distribution function,...

Recently, with the development of financial markets and due to the importance of these markets and their close relationship with other macroeconomic variables, using advanced mathematical models with complicated structures for forecasting these markets has become very popular. Besides, neural...

This entry for the New Palgrave covers developments in nonlinear time series analysis over the last 25 years.

We present a new approach on shape preserving estimation of probability distribution and density functions using wavelet methodology for multivariate dependent data. Our estimators preserve shape constraints such as monotonicity, positivity and integration to one, and allow for low spatial...

The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the capabilities of two generations of models such as those based on dynamic neural network (e.g., Nonlinear Neural network Auto Regressive or NNAR model) and a regressive (Auto Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model which...

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil- ity of Smooth...

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

The purpose of the paper is to present a novel approach of a general airport and access mode choice model. Based on data of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003 with a sample size of about 210.000 passengers interviewed at 21 airports a three-stage nested logit model has been estimated in a...