Macroeconomic theory suggests that the choice of exchange rate (or, equivalently, monetary) regime is affected by the incidence of real or monetary shocks. Anecdotally, the Bretton Woods period in world economic history is thought to have been characterized by nominal, rather than real, shocks....

This paper investigates the effects of financial and stock market development on the process of economic growth in UK. We first present two alternative competing hypotheses regarding financial development and economic growth in terms of their casual relationships, in the context of...

This study adds evidence from the four emerging markets of Central Europe relevant to the econometric modelling of financial time series by modelling volatility in these markets. The sample has all the previously documented characteristics of the unconditional distribution of stock returns...

Several ways of modelling non-linear state space models have been suggested. The extended Kalman Filter is a tractable way of doing so. One application is to consumer durable demand. Models explaining this flow are normally conditioned on the stock. For the UK, measures of the stock are...

From neoclassical theory output, capital stock and the user cost are cointegrated; capital and investment also (multi)cointegrate through the capital accumulation identity. An investment equation is estimated on UK data using a new capital stock series and a long series for the weighted cost of...

Manufacturing price markup equations are estimated for 15 OECD countries using annual data. Firms have CES production technology. The markup depends on demand, competitors' prices and uncertainty. Cointegration is tested with the Pedroni tests and a panel version of the Johansen test, and...

We compare the Bank of England's Inflation Report quarterly forecasts for growth and inflation to real-time benchmark forecasts. The results reveal the well-known difficulty of forecasting in a stable macroeconomic environment, and the Inflation Report forecasts of GDP growth are generally...