This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration, so it is difficult to directly compare their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in...

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^<Subscript>T</Subscript>) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing...</subscript>

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter θ is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result,...

In this paper we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals and confidence lower bounds for the intraclass correlation coefficient in an interrater reliability study where the raters are randomly selected from a population of raters. The likelihood function of the interrater...

An approximate variance of forecast is derived based on the structural coefficients and the variance around the structural equations. For the corn model, standard error of price was estimated to be $0.23 per bushel when neither acreage nor yield are known and $0.11 per bushel when production is...

While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models....

The odds ratio is a frequently used effect measure for two independent binomial proportions. Unfortunately, the confidence intervals that are available for it in Stata and other standard software packages are generally wider than necessary, particularly for small-sample and exact estimation. The...

In this article, we illustrate the command distrate, which calcu- lates age-standardized rates with efficient interval estimation by using formulas developed by Tiwari, Clegg, and Zou (2006, Statistical Methods in Medical Re- search 15: 547–569) as a modification of the method proposed by Fay...