To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff...

In this paper we study how inflation expectations are formed and whether these change due to the occurrence of policy shifts or structural breaks. We conduct 4 experiments with 75 inexperienced subjects, in which we ask them to predict future home inflation and report confidence intervals. At...

The study tests the policy irrelevance proposition in the inflation targeting monetary policy environment in South Africa, as well as in the context of a dichotomy between anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks. Findings from estimates of monetary policy reaction function confirmed that an...

This paper uses the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to examine monetary policy of the Mexican Central Bank in the framework of standard assumption of neoclassical orthodoxy for the years 2000-2011. This research presents empirical evidence that Mexican monetary authorities reacted, in...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that...

This paper examines the inflation expectations, monetary policy credibility, and dollarization. Country fundamentals have explained variation in sovereign spreads, but external factors play an important role. This paper assesses the role of and prospects for bank-lending from a cyclical and...

Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets,...

This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation-output process that arise from convexity in the Phillips curve and endogenous monetary policy credibility. We find that the dynamic responses to shocks in the extended model more closely...

Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically...

In this paper, the IMF's new Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the contribution of unbalanced growth to the decline in the share of goods production in Australia and New Zealand. The simulation results suggest that faster productivity growth in the tradable goods sector in...