In this paper a new class of tests for parameter stability, the moving-estimates (ME) test, is proposed. It is shown that in the standard situation the ME test asymptotically equivalent to the maximal likelihood ratio test under the alternative of a temporary parameter shift. It is also shown...

Understanding the determinants of aggregated corporate default probabilities (PDs) has attracted substantial research interest over the past decades. This study addresses two major difficulties in understanding the determinants of aggregate PDs: model uncertainty and multicollinearity among the...

After 36 years the FIFA World Cup returns to South America with the 2014 event being hosted in Brazil (after 1978 in Argentina). And as in all previous South American FIFA World Cups, a South American team is expected to take the victory: Using a bookmaker consensus rating - obtained by...

The paper presents an approach to the analysis of data that contains (multiple) structural changes in a linear regression setup. We implement various strategies which have been suggested in the literature for testing against structural changes as well as a dynamic programming algorithm for the...

Despite the increasing popularity of journal rankings to evaluate the quality of research contributions, the individual rankings for journals that ranked below the top tier of publications usually feature only modest agreement. Attempts to merge rankings into meta-rankings suffer from some...

The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of fluctuation-type tests in a monitoring situation – given a history period for which a regression relationship is known to be...

This paper introduces ideas and methods for testing for structural change in linear regression models and presents how these have been realized in an R package called strucchange. It features tests from the generalized uctuation test framework as well as from the F test (Chow test) framework....

Diaconis and Ylvisaker (1979) give necessary conditions for conjugate priors for distributions from the natural exponential family to be proper as well as to have the property of linear posterior expectation of the mean parameter of the family. Their conditions for propriety and linear posterior...