Macroeconometric and fi?nancial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their sta- tistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro- econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary...

Policy makers are primarily interested in fluctuations in the level of activity - the classical cycle. Academics have in recent times focused their efforts on studying fluctuations and co-movement in aggregate variables that have been rendered stationary after some appropriate transformation....

Macroeconomics has a long tradition of inspecting and interpreting patterns in graphs of aggregate data. However, the move towards more precise quantification of macroeconomic phenomena has seen academics shift away from a study of turning points, which are a natural and obvious way of...

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro-econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables...

Macroeconometric and fi?nancial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their sta- tistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro- econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary...

Economic events such as expansions and recessions in economic activity, bull and bear markets in stock prices and financial crises have long attracted substantial interest. In recent times there has been a focus upon predicting the events and constructing Early Warning Systems of them....

Economic events such as expansions and recessions in economic activity, bull and bear markets in stock prices and financial crises have long attracted substantial interest. In recent times there has been a focus upon predicting the events and constructing Early Warning Systems of them....

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very different definitions of it. We propose a two-fold classification based upon what series one is measuring a cycle in and...

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in microeconometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables...