We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from … (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are … violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty. …

to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk … much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in …

strategically about the broad impacts of the biofuel “boom”, apply strategic management tools and decision-making under uncertainty … SWOT analysis, scorecarding and heat mapping, scenario analysis, payoff matrix, and decision tree. A SWOT analysis is a … exploit those uncertainties. Scenario analysis can then help develop further how the uncertainties could unfold and affect the …

are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified …

Within forecasts based on single estimations the risk due to uncertainty is not considered. Yet they continue to be …

We investigate the decision heuristics used by experts to forecast that early-stage ventures are subsequently … flaws and positive factors to arrive at a forecast. A conjunctive model is used to describe their process, which sums "good …

Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk … probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an …

makers' mental representations of the alternatives, measured with both verbal and nonverbal judgment probes. We found that …, however, remained even when accounting for this judgment distortion and the effects of sampling bias. Indeed, participants …