Economic policy usually faces a number of risks and uncertainties, as a byproduct of the changing nature of signals, the economic structure, the interaction of aggregate variables, the mutations in the behavior of economic agents and their reaction to policy decisions. It is generally...

The focus of this study is on black markets which provide an important segment of the parallel economy. These markets operate in disequilibrium,search and information costs become very important.Trafficking in drugs taken as case, to explore both theoretically and empirically. The problem,...

Economic policy usually faces a number of risks and uncertainties, as a byproduct of the changing nature of signals, the economic structure, the interaction of aggregate variables, the mutations in the behavior of economic agents and their reaction to policy decisions. It is generally...

Plusieurs travaux récents sont consacrés à l’examen du comportement du banquier central face à l’incertitude affectant notamment son environnement économique. Ce papier propose, du point de vue du banquier central, une synthèse des principales sources d’incertitude ainsi qu’une...

Since Keynes no economist would deny that expectations under uncer- tain conditions matter for the conduct of monetary policy, but still opin- ions about their formation are diverse. We build a hybrid New Keynesian Framework to analyze the influence of model uncertainty on optimal in- terest...

Several recent papers are devoted to the examination of the central banker's behaviour in an uncertain economic environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as an illustration of their effects within an analytical...

By applying robust control the decision maker wants to make good decisions when his model is only a good approximation of the true one. Such decisions are said to be robust to model misspecification. In this paper it is shown that both a “probabilistically sophisticated” and a...

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on...

In this paper we extend Merton's (1975) classic stochastic version of the Ramsey model by allowing the government to control the expected growth rate of the labor supply. We characterize the solution to this control problem for general time-separable preferences, and derive an analytical...

This paper studies the design of optimal time-consistent monetary policy in an economy where the planner trusts its own model, while a representative household uses a set of alternative probability distributions governing the evolution of the exogenous state of the economy. In such environments,...