Armstrong, J. Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Graefe, Andreas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to … situation is uncertain and complex, and when bias is likely. Non-experts who know the Golden Rule can identify dubious forecasts … quickly and inexpensively. To date, ignorance of research findings, bias, sophisticated statistical procedures, and the …