Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...

Summary This paper demonstrates the cases where bootstrap does not work for heteroscedastic time series models. We construct prediction intervals for the ARMA-GARCH models using bootstrap and see how a wrong application of bootstrap could lead to a false conclusion

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use prediction markets to forecast an agricultural event: United States Department of Agriculture's number of cattle on feed (COF). Prediction markets are increasingly popular forecast tools due to their flexibility and proven accuracy to forecast a...

Presents research that was designed to explore the early take‐up of a pilot digital interactive television (DiTV) health information service (Living Health) by cable television subscribers in Birmingham, UK. Log data indicated real‐time viewing behaviour of subscribers to the cable network...