We consider which readily observable characteristics of individual stocks (e.g., option implied volatility, accounting data, analyst data) may be used to forecast subsequent extreme price movements. We are the first to explicitly consider the predictive influence of option implied volatility in...

We provide evidence that the stock market response to macroeconomic news weakens in times of high investor sentiment. The reaction to macroeconomic information is 50 percent weaker in times of elevated bullish investor sentiment, relative to periods of low sentiment. This dampening effect holds...

We provide evidence that the release of the unemployment rate announcement unconditionally leads to financial market uncertainty resolution in the stock, treasury, commodity, and foreign currency markets. The finding is economically valuable. A simple daily strategy of selling the 10-year...

Recent evidence (Stambaugh, Yu, and Yuan, 2015) indicates that the most promising explanation for the negative price of idiosyncratic volatility is from its function as a limit arbitrage. Our evidence incorporating firm specific news is inconsistent with the limited arbitrage explanation. Since...

We examine the information contained in option trading and short selling using a dynamic VAR model. First, we address whether options and shorts are complements or substitutes. Contrary to existing event studies around option listing introductions, we show short selling and options trading are...

We examine three aspects of the relation between dividend initiation and increase announcements and idiosyncratic volatility. First, consistent with dividend signaling, we find that firms with higher levels of idiosyncratic volatility are associated with higher announcement abnormal returns when...