Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

Florian Dorn erstellte diesen Beitrag während seines Promotionsstudiums an der Universität München (LMU). Die Studie wurde im September 2020 abgeschlossen und von der Fakultät für Volkswirtschaftslehre als Dissertation angenommen. Die Dissertation trägt zur Empirie der Ökonomie des...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the US Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

The results in this paper show that current European benchmark yields can be explained, with a high degree of accuracy, by using an affine term structure (ATS) model with the following four state variables: (i) the EU unemployment rate, (ii) the EU production price index, (iii) the ECB monetary...

We analyze the dynamics of price jumps and the impact of the European debt crisis using the high-frequency data reported by selected stock exchanges on the European continent during the period January 2008 to June 2012. We employ two methods to identify price jumps: Method 1 minimizes the...

This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the US Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...

We analyze the behavior and performance of multiple price jump indicators across markets and over time. By using high-frequency stock market data we identify clusters of price jump indicators that share similar properties in terms of their performance in that they minimize Type I and Type II...