In this study, the performance and rationality of the gross domestic product growth forecasts by the World Bank (WB) for six regional aggregates and 130 individual countries between 1999 and 2019 are assessed. A large body of literature examines macroeconomic forecasts for advanced economies by...

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial...

We conduct an innovative analysis of sporting world records by a) using economic instead of sporting determinants and b) by using multivariate stochastic frontier functions. Using data from 48 different disciplines between 1970 and 2014, we show that world records are close to full efficiency...