We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based …

, marginal likelihood comparisons and improved real-time GDP forecasting performance. …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …

an end-of-sample instability test to investigate the tability of forecasting models during the recent financial crisis …

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession … provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models … some countries and/or variables appear to be more adapted to non-linear forecasting …