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Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 and 2017

Graefe, Andreas - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 3, pp. 868-877

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305185

Embrace the differences : revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)

Graefe, Andreas - In: International journal of forecasting 39 (2023) 1, pp. 170-177

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014462773

Combining forecasts : an application to elections

Graefe, Andreas; Armstrong, Jon Scott; Jones, Randall … - In: International journal of forecasting 30 (2013) 1, pp. 43-54

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243645

Limitations of ensemble Bayesian model averaging for forecasting social science problems

Graefe, Andreas; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Stierle, Veronika; … - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 943-951

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474744

Combining forecasts: An application to elections

Graefe, Andreas; Armstrong, J. Scott; Jones, Randall J.; … - In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014) 1, pp. 43-54

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051409