This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...

We discuss the relative advantages and disadvantages of four types of convenient estimators of binary choice models when regressors may be endogenous or mismeasured, or when errors are likely to be heteroskedastic. For example, such models arise when treatment is not randomly assigned and...

I develop a tractable, two-country, real model of macroeconomic interdependence with a role for net foreign asset dynamics. Absence of Ricardian equivalence in an overlapping generations structure ensures existence of a well-defined, endogenously determined, steady-state, international...

Relative prices are nonstationary and standard root-T inference is invalid for demand systems. But demand systems are nonlinear functions of relative prices, and standard methods for dealing with nonstationarity in linear models cannot be used. Demand system residuals are also frequently found...

In this paper we consider endogenous regressors in the binary choice model under a weak median exclusion restriction, but without further specification of the distribution of the unobserved random components. Our reduced form specification with heteroscedastic residuals covers various...

We compare the performance of a currency board arrangement, inflation targeting, and dollarization in a small open, developing economy with liberalized capital account. We focus explicitly on the transmission of shocks to currency and country risk premia in international financial markets and on...

This paper assesses the apparent decline during the 1990s in the unemployment rate associated with stable inflation≥the so-called "NAIRU." The paper argues that supply shocks alone are not sufficient to account for this decline and that changes in labor markets are in part responsible. I...

This paper confirms that the unemployment rate associated with stable inflation, the so-called "NAIRU," probably has declined in recent years, after having risen sharply during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Although a demographic shift toward a less experienced workforce and an unexpected...

Kydland and Prescott first identified the inflationary bias that results when a central bank does not precommit to a monetary policy rule. Subsequent work, published over the past twenty five years, demonstrates that this inflationary bias can be minimized by appointing central bankers whose...

This paper provides a few variants of a simple estimator for binary choice models with endogenous or mismeasured regressors, or with heteroskedastic errors. Unlike control function methods, which are generally only valid when endogenous regressors are continuous, the estimators proposed here can...