A robust finding in psychological research is that combining information with a mechanical rule results in more valid predictions than combining information holistically in the mind. Nevertheless, information is typically combined holistically in practice, resulting in suboptimal predictions and...

Overconfidence is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their own judgments is systematically greater than their objective accuracy. There is abundant anecdotal evidence that overconfident people increase their exposure to risk. In this paper, we test whether...