Aiyar, Shekhar S.; Malacrino, Davide; Mohommad, Adil; … - 2022
demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic … spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect …While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020 …