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Learning from experience in the stock market
Nakov, Anton; Nuño, Galo - 2011
We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605442
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Expectations data in structural microeconomic models
Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - 2022
A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013432948
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Mental models of the stock market
Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475810
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Adaptive social learning
March, Christoph - 2016
interact in social-learning settings with distinct information structures. In each round of interaction, they use their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434567
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Public statistics and private experience : varying feedback information in a take-or-pass game
Danz, David; Huck, Steffen; Jehiel, Philippe - 2015
We study how subjects in an experiment use different forms of public information about their opponents' past behavior …. In the absence of public information, subjects appear to use rather detailed statistics summarizing their private … experiences. If they have additional public information, they make use of this information even if it is less precise than their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437784
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Deception and self-deception
Schwardman, Peter; Weele, Joël J. van der - 2016
We experimentally investigate the determinants of overconfidence and test the hypothesis, advanced by Robert Trivers, that overconfidence serves to more effectively persuade or deceive others. After performing a cognitively challenging task, half of our subjects are informed about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441641
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Learning direction theory and the winners curse
Selten, Reinhard; Abbink, Klaus; Cox, Ricarda - 2001
We report an experiment on a decision task by SAMUELSON and BAZERMAN (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an unknown value. A winner s curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can account for this. However, other influences on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539130
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Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?
Barron, Kai - 2016
behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542204
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Student earnings expectations : heterogeneity or noise?
Diaz-Serrano, Luis; Hartog, Joop; Nilsson, William; … - 2016 - First draft 12-05-14; revised 26-01-15; this draft 19-09-2016
. Direct surveys suggest much ignorance and fuzziness. We use survey data on expectations in four universities in three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544177
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Modellierung von Preiserwartungen durch neuronale Netze
Heinemann, Maik; Lange, Carsten - 1997
Das Papier untersucht, wie Erwartungsbildung mit Hilfe neuronaler Netze modelliert werden kann. Die Grundlage bildet ein Cobweb-Modell, in dem Firmen Preiserwartungen auf Basis eines Feedforward-Netzes bilden. Zunächst wird anhand von Simulationen gezeigt, daß Firmen durch neuronale...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526305