The assumptions of multiple regression analysis are not met in many practical forecasting situations and, as a result, regression models are insufficiently conservative. We tested the effect on forecast accuracy of applying three evidence-based forecasting guidelines to 18 political economy...

The Golden Rule of Forecasting counsels forecasters to be conservative when making forecasts. We tested the value of three of the four Golden Rule guidelines that apply to causal models: modify effect estimates to reflect uncerainty; use all important variables; and combine forecasts from...

Problem. Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts?Methods. To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in...

We assess how the PollyVote and its components performed in this election compared to the previous six (1992 to 2012). While always predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote, across the 100 days leading to the election on average the PollyVote overshot the mark by 1.9 percentage...