A novel approach to inference for a specific region of the predictive distribution is introduced. An important domain of application is accurate prediction of financial risk measures, where the area of interest is the left tail of the predictive density of logreturns. Our proposed approach...

A novel approach to inference for a specific region of the predictive distribution is introduced. An important domain of application is accurate prediction of financial risk measures, where the area of interest is the left tail of the predictive density of logreturns. Our proposed approach...

In several scientific fields, such as finance, economics and bioinformatics, important theoretical and practical issues exist involving multimodal and asymmetric count data distributions due to heterogeneity of the underlying population. For accurate approximation of such distributions we...

The Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution recently introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen (1997) is a promising alternative for modelling financial data exhibiting skewness and fat tails. In this paper we explore the Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. --...

Based on a record sample from the Rayleigh model, we consider the problem of estimating the scale and location parameters of the model and predicting the future unobserved record data. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches under different loss functions are used to estimate the model's...

We point out that the simple slice sampler generates chains that are correlation-free when the target distribution is centrally symmetric. This property explains several results in the literature about the relative performance of the simple and product slice samplers. We exploit it to improve...