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We develop a novel high-dimensional non-Gaussian modeling framework to infer measures of conditional and joint default risk for many financial sector firms. The model is based on a dynamic Generalized Hyperbolic Skewed-t block-equicorrelation copula with time-varying volatility and dependence...
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We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavytailed changes in the price of CDS...
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We propose a dynamic semi-parametric framework to study time variation in tail parameters. The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling peaks over thresholds as in Extreme Value Theory, but casts the model in a conditional framework to allow for time-variation...
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We study the impact of increasingly negative central bank policy rates on banks' propensity to become undercapitalized in a financial crisis ('SRisk'). We find that the risk impact of negative rates is moderate, and depends on banks' business models: Banks with diversified income streams are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011719935
We study the impact of increasingly negative central bank policy rates on banks' propensity to become undercapitalized in a financial crisis (`SRisk'). We find that the risk impact of negative rates depends on banks' business models: Large banks with diversified income streams are perceived as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011642197