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Forecasting short-term oil price with a generalised pattern matching model based on empirical genetic algorithm
Zhao, Lu-Tao; Zeng, Guan-Rong; He, Ling-yun; Meng, Ya - In: Computational economics 55 (2020) 4, pp. 1151-1169
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012223706
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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
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Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations : evidence from the lab
Colasante, Annarita; Palestrini, Antonio; Russo, Alberto; … - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 4, pp. 988-1006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746935
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Designing incentive systems for truthful forecast information sharing within a firm : case study, theory and experiments
Scheele, Lisa - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848460
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Models of investor forecasting behavior : experimental evidence
Bonetto, Federico; Cheriyan, Vinod; Kleywegt, Anton J. - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 11 (2018) 1, pp. 1-41
forecasting future price changes, and the nature of their confidence when price changes are forecast, determine whether price … involving multiple investors who participated in a market for a virtual asset. Our goal is to study investors’ forecast … forecast formation to the observed data. There is strong evidence that the investors forecast future prices by extrapolating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854982
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Designing incentive systems for truthful forecast information sharing within a firm
Scheele, Lisa M.; Thonemann, Ulrich; Slikker, Marco - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 64 (2018) 8, pp. 3690-3713
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899979
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Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments
Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Akiyama, Eizo; Ishikawa, Ryuichiro - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 88 (2018), pp. 51-69
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011973919
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Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their price forecasts
Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Akiyama, Eizo; Ishikawa, Ryuichiro - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 88 (2018), pp. 121-136
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011973931
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The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index
Lahiri, Kajal; Yao, Wenxiong - In: Applied economics letters 11 (2004) 3, pp. 149-152
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001951316