In behavioral experiments, carefully choosing the stimuli is critical for success. Recently, several "adaptive" Bayesian methods gained popularity by proposing to optimally select the stimulus in each trial based on the results of the preceding trials. However, current methods are...

We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their...