The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama's reelection in 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent Democrats losing with 48.2% of the two-party vote

This study introduces the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technique to forecasting popular vote share. The technique is useful when using polling data, which is pertinent when none of the main candidates is the incumbent. Our main interest in this study is the short- and long-term...