This article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument...

Going through arbitration has many costs, both tangible and intangible. Going to arbitration may also result in the severance of a mutual relationship between a contractor and a client. It may result that the contractor would lose potential future profits by being barred from participating in...

One of the problems in epidemiologic studies and public governance is not whether next pandemics will happen, but when a new pandemic will emerge leading to heath emergency . The purpose of this study is to analyze main factors determining pandemic threats and how countries can design and...

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in weather with violence. Less well understood is the scope for agents to adapt to medium and longer-run climate fluctuations. We follow Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011) and use the existing climactic forces of the El Niño Southern...

Reliable detection of forecasting skill is slow and resource-intensive. Forecasters need to answer dozens of questions, which may take months or years to resolve. To accelerate this process, we propose the Full Accuracy Score (FAS), a measure that combines the strengths of ground-truth-based...

Seasonal influenza outbreaks and pandemics of new strains of the influenza virus affect humans around the globe. However, traditional systems for measuring the spread of flu infections deliver results with one or two weeks delay. Recent research suggests that data on queries made to the search...

We propose a generic workflow for the use of machine learning models to inform decision making and to communicate modelling results with stakeholders. It involves three steps: (1) a comparative model evaluation, (2) a feature importance analysis and (3) statistical inference based on Shapley...

In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The...