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Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs

Perederiy, Volodymyr (contributor) - 2007

. -- Logistische Regression ; Varablenauswahl ; Insolvenzprognose ; Bilanzanalyse ; bilanzielle Kennzahl ; Liquidität ; Solvenz … Kennzahlenkategorien (Rentabilität, Effizienz, Unternehmensgröße) - zur Insolvenzprognose für deutsche GmbHs verwendet. Es wird … demonstriert, dass die kombinierte Kennzahl die Insolvenzprognose verbessert und dabei leicht interpretierbar bleibt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635001

Corporate Governance and Financial Distress : A Discrete Time Hazard Prediction Model

Li, Zhiyong - 2015

Poor corporate governance can damage the interests of shareholders, and may lead to company collapse. Previous studies in credit risk prediction provide no consensus as to which and how corporate governance variables determine bankruptcy. This paper is the first to apply a discrete time hazard...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018775

A bankruptcy probability model for assessing credit risk on corporate loans with automated variable selection

Hjelseth, Ida Nervik; Raknerud, Arvid; Vatne, Bjørn Helge - 2022

We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment remarks in the form of debt collections from private agencies and attachments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013337991

Predicting Bankruptcy via Cross-Sectional Earnings Forecasts

Hess, Dieter - 2019

We develop a model to predict bankruptcies, exploiting that negative book equity is a strong indicator of financial distress. Accordingly, our key predictor of bankruptcy is the probability that future losses will deplete a firm's book equity. To calculate this probability, we use earnings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899828

Empirical Comparison of Hazard Models in Predicting SMEs Failure

Gupta, Jairaj - 2018

This study aims to shed light on the debate concerning the choice between discrete-time and continuous-time hazard models in making bankruptcy or any binary prediction using interval censored data. Building on the theoretical suggestions from various disciplines, we empirically compare widely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937919

The Modeling of Forecasting the Bankruptcy Risk in Romania

Lupu, Dan - 2019

Bankruptcy prediction and the understanding of the causes for economic failure have a financial utility. The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive power, on the Romanian market, of the most popular bankruptcy models considering the firms listed on the BSE during 2007-2011. Using the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864752

Predicting US Banks Bankruptcy : Logit versus Canonical Discriminant Analysis

Affes, Zeineb - 2017

Using a large panel of US banks over the period 2008-2013, this paper proposes an early warning framework to identify bank heading to bankruptcy. We conduct a comparative analysis based on both Canonical Discriminant Analysis and Logit models to examine and to determine the most accurate one....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968419

Forecast Bankruptcy Using a Blend of Clustering and MARS Model - Case of US Banks

Affes, Zeineb - 2016

In this paper, we compare the performance of two non-parametric methods of classification, Regression Trees (CART) and the newly Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models, in forecasting bankruptcy. Models are implemented on a large universe of US banks over a complete market cycle...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985092

Bankruptcy Prediction of Privately Held SMEs Using Feature Selection Methods

Paraschiv, Florentina; Schmid, Markus M.; Wahlstrøm, … - 2021

In this paper, we test alternative feature selection methods for bankruptcy prediction and illustrate their superiority versus popular models used in the literature. We test these methods using a comprehensive dataset of more than one million financial statements from privately held Norwegian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214715

On unbalanced sampling in bankruptcy prediction

Gruszczyński, Marek - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 7 (2019) 2/28, pp. 1-13

The paper discusses methodological topics of bankruptcy prediction modelling—unbalanced sampling, sample bias, and unbiased predictions of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy models are typically estimated with the use of non-random samples, which creates sample choice biases. We consider two types of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038732

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