Rocco Aprile and Aurelio Sidoti present the forecasting model developed by the Italian Ministry of Treasury in order to evaluate the long-term prospects of the pension system. The model is characterised by the effort to consider in detail the legal and institutional framework. In particular, it...

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...