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businesses to measure firms' expectations about their re-opening and future demand. A plurality of firms in our sample expect to …, including customers and suppliers. Owners expect demand to be one-third lower than before the crisis through autumn. Firms with … more pessimistic expectations about demand predict a later reopening. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate …
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A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726076
We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...
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Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentiment have predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and long term. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investors should trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008902937
This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Using survey-based sentiment indicators from Germany and the US we confirm previous findings of predictability at intermediate time horizons. The main contribution of our paper is that we also analyze the immediate price...
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