This article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument...

Reliable detection of forecasting skill is slow and resource-intensive. Forecasters need to answer dozens of questions, which may take months or years to resolve. To accelerate this process, we propose the Full Accuracy Score (FAS), a measure that combines the strengths of ground-truth-based...

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

Going through arbitration has many costs, both tangible and intangible. Going to arbitration may also result in the severance of a mutual relationship between a contractor and a client. It may result that the contractor would lose potential future profits by being barred from participating in...

A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in weather with violence. Less well understood is the scope for agents to adapt to medium and longer-run climate fluctuations. We follow Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011) and use the existing climactic forces of the El Niño Southern...

Previous experiments have explored the effects of gender and cognitive reflection on dishonesty separately. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have investigated potential interactions between these two factors. Exploring this interaction is important because previous work found that males...

In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In...

Seasonal influenza outbreaks and pandemics of new strains of the influenza virus affect humans around the globe. However, traditional systems for measuring the spread of flu infections deliver results with one or two weeks delay. Recent research suggests that data on queries made to the search...

Estimation of the Pareto tail index from extreme order statistics is an important problem in many settings. The upper tail of the distribution, where data are sparse, is typically fitted with a model, such as the Pareto model, from which quantities such as probabilities associated with extreme...

I consider a class of two-party, zero sum sequential selection games where players compete over the composition of a panel comprising one or more seats. The players have a limited number of vetoes which can be used to reject panelists, with replacements being selected at random from a pool. One...