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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
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OLG Life Cycle Model Transition Paths : Alternate Model Forecast Method
Evans, Richard W. - 2012
The overlapping generations (OLG) model is an important framework for analyzing any type of question in which age cohorts are affected differently by exogenous shocks. However, as the dimensions and degree of heterogeneity in these models increase, the computational burden imposed by rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110566
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Using the pension multiple to measure retirement outcomes
Minney, Aaron; Zhu, Zili; Guo, Ying; Li, Jiaming; … - In: Finance research letters 49 (2022), pp. 1-8
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013479606
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Income Growth in the 21st Century : Forecasts with an Overlapping Generations Model
de la Croix, David - 2007
We forecast income growth over the period 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729226
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Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy
Bravo, Jorge Miguel Ventura; Ayuso, Mercedes; Holzmann, … - In: Insurance / Mathematics & economics 99 (2021), pp. 200-221
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649227
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Automatic indexation of the pension age to life expectancy : when policy design matters
Ayuso, Mercedes; Holzmann, Robert; Holzmann, Robert; … - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 5, pp. 1-28
Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular pension policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597036
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Modification of the Lee-Carter mortality model and its application in the pension scheme
Rossa, Agnieszka - In: Argumenta oeconomica 49 (2022) 2, pp. 93-113
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014279315
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Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Cota, Marta - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251160
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Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias
Goda, Gopi Shah - 2018
In a nationally-representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey-based elicitations of exponential … present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These … calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12 percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911197