One of the strongest leading indicators of economic activity is the number of people who file for unemployment benefits. Macroeconomists Robert Gordon and James Hamilton have recently examined the historical evidence. According to Hamilton's summary: "... in each of the last six recessions, the...

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were obtained by a family of SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, between February 1986 and February 2010. The SARIMA projections are compared with the...

The identification of the business cycle turn points is a challenging task. In this context, the evolution of new data typologies as internet searches data strongly impacted the construction of approaches practical to forecast macroeconomic variables. This work emphasizes the significance of...

Forecasts are vital to every business organization and are key inputs to business decisions such as budgeting, compensation and financial reporting. In this study, we use an abstract experiment to examine how the extent of disaggregation in a management forecast interacts with performance-based...