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Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular … process, model, and parameter risks. The results show that: (i) retirement ages are forecasted to increase substantially in … the coming decades, particularly if a constant period in retirement is targeted; (ii) retirement age policy outcomes may …
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Rocco Aprile and Aurelio Sidoti present the forecasting model developed by the Italian Ministry of Treasury in order to evaluate the long-term prospects of the pension system. The model is characterised by the effort to consider in detail the legal and institutional framework. In particular, it...
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We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
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