We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good...

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark

This paper investigates how solidly inflation expectations are anchored in Asia, using inflation forecasts by professional forecasters from Consensus Economics. We examine inflation expectations using three different methods. First, we assess the behaviour of longer-term (both five-year-ahead...